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Scott Austin of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones

If you don't want to have to look at my Covid beard, you can instead check it as a podcast at Apple or Spotify. 

Follow your arrow

Democrats were on the wrong side of a smackdown in Tuesday’s election- losing the Senate, more seats in the House and a bunch of important gubernatorial races (Wisconsin, Florida, Maryland, etc.). Based on the giddy gloating from Republicans, they will overplay their hand and misread the implications for 2016. 

Democrats did not lose because of the way they have governed- they lost because of how they campaigned. Instead of trumpeting accomplishments from the last 6 years, feckless candidates tried to avoid any taint from Obama and hoped to be perceived as kinder, gentler versions of their Republican opponents. The results were disastrous for the Democratic candidates.

Democrats had the opportunity to talk about how much things have improved since the desultory years of George W. Bush. When Obama took office, banks were failing, companies were slashing jobs and behemoth companies such as GM and AIG were lurching towards bankruptcy. Home values had plummeted and the stock market had plunged.

Today the stock market is hitting all-time highs, unemployment is below 6%, Osama bin Laden is dead, millions more Americans have health insurance and the economy is growing on a consistent basis. You’d think that Democratic candidates would have rallied around their President and lauded their role in assisting him.

Instead Obama is treated like a pariah and candidates declined to be seen with him. It was the worst job of political messaging since Mission Accomplished. The Democratic Party utterly failed in conveying success and talking about what was to come. Obama played defense when he should have been on the offensive- such as when he failed to lay out an executive plan for immigration reform after Congress failed to act. 

I was disappointed to hear so few Democratic candidates articulate what they believe in. The failure to inspire voters resulted in dismal turnout, especially among the Democratic base. When Democrats talk about their values and beliefs, they win.

I believe we are better off now than we were six years ago.

I believe it is a good thing that millions more Americans now have health coverage. Medical bills are the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in this country. Preventive care can help control costs and relieve the burden on emergency rooms.

I believe Obamacare should be tweaked. It should be expanded and move closer to a Medicare for all model. More Americans should benefit from the government leveraging buying power to negotiate reduced rates. I’d challenge Republicans to explain what will happen to the millions of newly insured Americans if Obamacare were repealed.

I believe in the economic policies that have resulted in consistent economic growth, a 2/3 reduction in the deficit, stock market record highs and an unemployment rate that has dropped below 6%. Massive tax cuts for the rich and massive deficits have proven to result in economic disaster- let’s skip trying that combination again.

I believe we should overhaul the tax code. Warren Buffet should not have a lower tax rate than his secretary- and Mr. Buffet says the same thing. Targeting tax cuts for the middle class while closing loopholes for the ultra-rich will result in greater economic growth. Give an extra $1,000 to a family making $80,000 and they probably spend some, invest some, and save some. Give an extra $30,000,000 to Warren Buffet- it won’t result in different spending on his part. Consumer spending is a huge part of our economic engine. 

I believe that gay marriage should be recognized by the federal government and in all 50 states. If you don’t believe in gay marriage, don’t marry a gay person. I checked with quite a few gay people- they are all totally OK if you (yes, I mean you) don’t marry them. Let’s agree that two consenting adults can get married and we can all move on. You don’t want to end up on the George Wallace/ Bull Connor side of this human rights issue. 

I believe a woman should have the right to control her body. If she wants to utilize birth control, that doesn’t make her a slut. If she goes to college, she shouldn’t have to worry about getting raped. If she feels she needs to have an abortion - I agree with Bill Clinton when he said it should be safe, legal and rare.

I believe our country is safer for having ended the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Osama bin Laden met his rightful end after President Obama authorized a Navy Seal team to go after him. We need a thoughtful, reasoned approach to Iran, Syria and North Korea.

I believe we need to have a common-sense approach to immigration. Thirteen million illegal immigrants aren’t going to magically vanish. We should both secure our borders and provide a path to citizenship for people who are willing to earn it. 

I believe we need to do more to halt the destruction of our environment. Global warming is real and it is a threat. It will be really bad for business if we destroy the planet. It will also be pretty rotten for those of us living on the planet.

I believe we should legalize and regulate the sale of marijuana. Tobacco, alcohol and sugar are much bigger health hazards than pot. Those three have caused millions of deaths and cost trillions of dollars in health care costs.

I was disappointed that few Democratic candidates gave a full-throated statement of their beliefs. It cost us numerous races in 2014. I hope we have different types of candidates in 2016. Democrats need to follow their arrow.

Gays, Marriage and the Military

VP Joe Biden stirred things up over the weekend when he appeared to embrace gay marriage and signal that President Obama might be moving in that direction. Obama has been reluctant to embrace gay marriage because it could be used as a wedge issue in November (much like it was used in 2004). Biden has long had a tendency to veer off script but has managed to avoid any monumental screw ups the last 4 years.

The issue of basic human rights for gays is one that cannot be managed or poll-tested. It is inevitable. Gays will soon be able to marry in any state in the United States and they will be able to openly serve in the military. Twenty years ago no one even discussed gay marriage in the political realm. Ten years ago it was at the periphery of the discourse. Now it is front and center. Younger Americans show increasing openness to gay marriage- the trend will not abate. Dr. King once said that "The arc of the moral universe is long but it bends toward justice."

When people like Rick Santorum start spouting nonsense about how allowing gay marriage will open the door for people to marry their pets, they just make themselves seem more ridiculous. I have a dog. I'm quite fond of Max(many other people aren't because he tends to snap at people for no good reason and steal their food). I'm not inclined to marry him. Why the hell would a gay person want to marry him? Sure, some gays like to dress their dogs up, but so does Paris Hilton and we've allowed her the right to marry.

The language around banning gays from the military pretty much matches why blacks were not allowed to serve equally with whites until the latter part of the 20th Century. It might be bad for morale. Soldiers wouldn't feel comfortable. It is a unique environment and we can't tamper with it. Sooner or later, this form of discrimination will end as well.

A few decades from now, the question our grandchildren will ask is where were you on the great civil rights issue of your time? I'm sure the answers will change and people will say they always in favor of equal rights for everyone. Today you can find lots of people who claim to have marched for civil rights in the 60s (including Mitt Romney). You never find someone saying "Yeah, I really tried to keep those n$#@& in  place but unfortunately we lost that one."

When we are rehashing this debate, I'm glad I'm on the side of this guy:


and not these folks:

Endangered species

Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana is destined for defeat tomorrow in the Republican primary. His Tea Party opponent, Richard Mourdock, is going to win in part because people are just tired of Lugar and believe he is out of touch. It is symbolized by the fact that Lugar no longer owns a home in Indiana and his primary residence is near DC. 


Lugar is getting increasingly desperate and it momentum is going against him.  Winning candidates don't say things like: "Every person in Indiana who wants me to continue, every person, wherever they might be at this point, I encourage them to come out," he said, according to the Indianapolis Star. "Come out immediately, as fast as you can."


My prediction- Lugar loses the primary by 10 points.

Closer to home (for me), loooooonnnngggg time incumbent Congressman Pete Stark  is in major trouble in his primary race with Dublin City Councilman Eric Swalwell. Stark has been in office since 1972 and is not used to have a competitive race. His electioneering skills appear rather rusty. He has accused Swalwell of taking bribes and then was forced to apologize when he had no proof of his allegations. In a debate with Swalwell, Stark called him a "pipsqueak" and appeared angry that someone had the temerity to challenge him. 

In a recent editorial interview with the SF Chronicle, Stark talked about how he wanted an electric car from Solyndra (the now bankrupt solar manufacturer). "I wish I had enough expense allowance to get one of those new S's that Solyndra's going to make down there - the electric car," Stark said, after being asked about the company. "They run $60,000 to $90,000." I'm going to venture that the Solyndra embrace won't help Stark eliminate the notion that he is no longer the sharpest tool in the shed. 

With California's new primary law, the top two candidates will advance to the November election, regardless of party affiliation. In this case, it is likely that Democrats Swalwell and Stark will have a rematch in November. If Swalwell keeps Stark under 60% in the primary, I think he'll pull off the November upset.

Worst attack ad ever....

The Republicans decide to attack President Obama for bragging about killing the world's most famous terrorist. Really? That's the best they could do? I'm pretty sure that the Obama campaign is quite delighted to spend more time talking about how the President successfully brought to justice the man who ordered the 9/11 attacks. And as T.I said, "Everybody know it ain't trickin if you got it."

As opposed to this guy:

Obama is the clear winner on this one.

Dreaming of Carlyfornia

Mike Bloomberg and Mark Warner are two examples of wealthy business executives who have had electoral succes, but it is not always that easy- ask Al Checchi or Mitt Romney. I know Mitt was the governor in Massachusetts, but this is not a man who has successfully transitioned to politics:




Dubya Bush was a unique case- a constant business failure who ended up having electoral success. 
Carly Fiorina just might be in a class of her own. Here's how HP stock fared during her tenure as CEO:

During the 2008 presidential campaign, Carly "helped John McCain by saying things like Sarah Palin couldn't run a major corporation (considering what a great job Carly did, that is really saying something).


Now Carly's running  for the US Senate in California. Her campaign website has been rightfully described as the worst campaign website ever:





Earlier  this week Carly rolled out her new attack video targeting Tom Campbell. 




 So many questions:
- Where did they get the wanna-be Morgan Freeman narrator?
- Which sheep are the ones we should aspire to be?
- Did Carly herself play the demon sheep?
- Did anyone know that there was such a thing as a demon sheep before this ad?
- How much did they pay the the demon sheep?
- Did they use their own animals or have to tell a rancher that they were creating a demon sheep political ad?


The good news is that John McCain thought she did a good job as CEO:



Meg Whitman will need to kick it up in order to keep pace with Carly.

Looking forward to seeing Tebow

The Saints vs. Colts makes for a pretty good Super Bowl match up- both teams were undefeated after 13 weeks, have high powered offenses and elite quarterbacks. But every year most Americans look forward to seeing the commercials (Monster.com's "I want to be a yes man" is one of my all time favorites). The most talked about commercial this year is the one featuring Tim Tebow and his mother. They tell the story of her difficult pregnancy with Tim and her decision to continue with the pregnancy.

A number of women's groups are protesting the ad (partly because it is funded by Focus on the Family). Perhaps they've had a sneak peek at the ad and it shows aborted fetuses, but it sounds like most people haven't even seen the ad yet. I'm hoping that it is an ad that celebrates the choice that Tebow's Mom made- she's obviously quite proud of her son and she has every right to be.

I'm anti-abortion- I believe that it is a tragedy for everyone involved. If this ad decreases even slightly the number of abortions in this country, that's a good thing. But I'm also pro-choice. Bill Clinton summed it up well when he said that abortion should be "safe, legal and rare."

Until we've actually seen the ad, I'll go back to picking a winner in the game and assessing how Tim Tebow will fare at QB in the NFL......I'm picking the Saints 35-24 and think Tebow will end up being a damn good QB.

What Gavin Newsom should do next

The SF Mayor had folks yammering when Maureen Dowd wrote an article in which Gavin appeared to indicate he was retiring from politics after his term expired. “This is it. God bless. It was fun while it lasted,” he said of his career, with a rueful smile. “Guys like me don’t necessarily progress very far, which is fine.”


The obvious move is for Newsom to run for Lt. Gov. He is at least considering it, although seeming to lean heavily against it according to KTVU.

If he wants to have a significant career in politics, it is the best move he can make. He's termed out as mayor, his gubernatorial campaign was a non-starter, no other logical races for him to get in to.

The current Dem contenders, Janice Hahn and Dean Florez, aren't exactly setting the world on fire. Hahn's biggest campaign coup so far is getting the endorsement of Ed Begley Jr. And Florez's biggest achievement is that he has no ties to Ed Begley Jr.

According to the Fresno Bee:

• Lieutenant governor: Florez reported raising $229,747 in the second half of 2009 and has $957,381 cash on hand. Democratic primary opponent Hahn, a Los Angeles City Council member who only recently entered the race, raised $420,691 and has $341,341 at her disposal.

So we are 5 months from the primary and both candidates have less than $1 million Cash on Hand. Newsom swamps them both in name rec and could easily raise that type of cash- he couldn't keep up with Jerry Brown, but Florez and Hahn he can take.

Lt. Gov is not a high profile job, but Newsom doesn't need to raise his profile. He should spend the time traveling the stay, going to all the red counties and SoCal and letting people see that he is not a fire breathing San Francisco radical (funny how many people in SF think he is  way too moderate).

If Whitman or Poizner becomes governor, Newsom is a front-runner in 4 years. If Jerry Brown wins, Newsom bides his time- either for 8 years or 4 if Jerry only runs for 1 term. Newsom would also have a great platform to run for Senate in 2012 if Feinstein declines to run for reelection (decent chance since she's 117 years old).

And with all the wackiness from Edwards, Sanford, Spitzer, Vitter, etc., the fact that Newsom slept with his campaign aide's wife is old news. Kind of.

Here's Eliot yucking it up with Colbert:

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Eliot Spitzer
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Economy

Yuck!

I want to relegate John Edwards to the dimmest region of my memory, but more and more stuff just keeps coming out.  You'd think that the sex tape with his pregnant mistress, made while his wife was battling terminal cancer and he was running for President, would really be the lowest point of this nonsense. Now you've got whipping boy Andy Young revealing even more horrifying details. I think may go take a shower now.