The Obama reelection guarantee

OK, maybe it is a tiny bit early, but I'm going to go ahead and guarantee that Obama will be reelected in 2012. Since his reelection is a foregone conclusion, it makes it all the more enjoyable to watch the positioning for the GOP nomination. That nomination will be about as appealing as a tuna sandwich that's been left out in the sun for 8 hours.

So why am I so confident of the inevitability of Obama? The single biggest factor in a President's reelection is how the economy is performing. Let's take a quick look at the recent history:

1972- Nixon imposes wage and price controls that create an artificial, temporary prosperity. McGovern gets trounced.

1980- Jimmy Carter faces an economy so bad that they create a new term "stagflation". Hello, Ronnie.

1984- After coming out of the 1982 recession, Reagan's combination of tax cuts and increased spending creates a booming economy...and massive deficits. Mondale's famous, ill-advised pledge to "tax you bastards back to the Stone Age" is a huge hit in Minnesota, D.C. and...nowhere else.

1992- George H.W. Bush manages to take his 90% approval ratings in 1991 and still lose to Bill Clinton because of the recession.

1996- Clinton rebounds from the GOP landslide in 1994 and remain in the White House because the economy was just starting to boom.

2004- George W. Bush gets his first win in a Presidential election (still not letting Florida go) in 2004 because a) John Kerry was a complete tool and b) people generally felt OK about the economy.

Based on economic cycles, I think we'll be on the upswing in 2012. If we don't see the economy get better in the next four years, then I don't care if my Internet prediction looks foolish- no one will be able to afford a computer or electricity so it won't matter.

Furthermore, Gingrich, Romney, Palin, Jindal- not really seeing a big winner out there on the horizon.

Only ways I can imagine Obama losing:

Leaves Michelle for Lindsay Lohan
Hires Michael Vick as a dog trainer for Bo
Doesn't listen to Jack Bauer's advice

Assorted Polling: Good news for Obama

A host of recent polls have been very positive - both for Obama himself and for progressive policies in general.

A Pew poll shows Obama at 61% approval with only 26% disapproval ratings, with 60% agreeing that the government needs to do more to regulate the financial sector (with only 31% opposed), and by a 54% to 36% margin Americans feel Obama's economic plan will reduce the deficit in the long term.

A recent CNN poll revealed that only 26% of America agrees with Dick Cheney's recent claim that Obama's policies have increased the chances of a terrorist attack against the United States, while a resounding 72% disagree. That 26% pretty well tracks Cheney's normal personal approval numbers, and the percentage of Americans who agree with almost any of his policies. But its a bad sign for the GOP - when they can't sell America on fear, they have a tough time winning elections.

Heck, more Americans polled feel their taxes are fair rather than too high. This as we watch the Fox News promoted "tea parties", where small groups of right wingers protested Obama's tax policies (even though all of them making less than $250,000 were getting tax cuts) and the expansion of the federal deficit in general (although strangely most of them were silent while Bush was running up deficit records).

Obama is also the most trusted current political figure, and 71% specifically trust him to fix our economy.

Much of this is the early support of a popular new President, elected with a clear mandate, who has been following through on his campaign promises. But part of it also has to be attributed to the comically poor nature of the opposition party. Following its massive defeats in the 2006 and 2008 elections, the GOP is still staggering about aimlessly, trying to find leaders and a message (one different than their usual stale platform that has been soundly rejected at the ballot box). When your public face consists of such crazies, has-beens, and not ready for prime time players as Michael Steele, Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Glenn Beck, Michele Bachmann, and Rush Limbaugh - something has gone very wrong. Ironically, many Republicans tried to convince themselves that their party's political ills were all due to Bush's low personal approval ratings. Yet compared to that group, he looks like the most sane, reasonable, well liked leader they have going for them.

The last U.S. World War I Veteran

Did you know there was a living U.S. World War I veteran? I just saw an article on this man, Frank Buckles, and thought it was fascinating. In an era where this country loses almost 1,000 of our World War II veterans a day (a 25 year old drafted in 1942 would now be 92), its amazing to think there is still a World War I veteran around. He is now 108 years old and lives in West Virginia.

Does he go to VFW (Veterans of Foreign Wars) events? Is there a table with a bunch of guys talking about Iraq, Korea, and Vietnam, while one guy on the end is there talking about sticking it to the Kaiser? He may be the only person you see complaining about Kaiser that isn't talking about their health care provider.

Where we at?

A new poll came out that shows more Americans are thinking the country is getting back on track. It seems like things have stabilized over the last couple of months. People are starting to think the worst may be over, but no one is rushing out and buying a new Escalade.

The single biggest thing President Obama has done to stabilize the economy is to project that he knows what he is doing. The American people aren't expecting things to be fixed overnight, but they want to know we are generally heading in the right direction. McCain lost any chance he had of winning the election when he kinda/sorta "suspended" his campaign. No one, including McCain, seemed to know what he was doing. I shudder to think how bad things might be right now if McCain were President.

Do you think things are better now or are we just in the eye of the hurricane?

Pirates vow revenge

So now a pirate spokesman is claiming that Somali pirates were "angered by the U.S. action" and are swearing revenge. I'm sorry, is he saying he is mad that we protected our ship, saved the life of our captured countryman, and took out the pirates who were threatening to kill him? Sure, armed piracy on the high seas is fine, but when you defend yourself - well, that's just going too far.

His protests aside, I think our actions were both reasonable and necessary. Some worry this may escalate the situation, and ramp up violence in future piracy attempts. But the reality is these pirates are thugs who respect force, and can be deterred. Why has piracy seen such a sharp spike in recent years? Because companies have been paying millions of dollars in ransom. And this will only continue getting worse until more countries do what France and the U.S. just did, and react with force instead of payment. If you keep paying ransom, pirates will keep seizing ships.

And you just can't say enough about the amazing job the Navy SEALs did. They parachuted in at dark, boarded the USS Bainbridge, took positions 100 feet away from the captured lifeboat, and waited for their opportunity. Three shots and three kills, all simultaneous. And all from one bobbing vessel to targets behind glass on another boat in the water. There is a great book that chronicles the SEAL training program called "The Warrior Elite: The Forging of SEAL Class 228". On average, only about 25% of the men who start BUD/S will actually complete the program - its that grueling. But you can see why the people who do are among the best of the best.

Lastly, let's not forgot all those GOP blowhards who filled the airwaves for days, talking down Obama and our country, saying we couldn't handle the pirates, and claiming Obama was missing in action during the crisis. All while Obama was quietly handling the situation behind the scenes, then authorizing the successful operation that took out the pirates and saved our men. Quite a contrast from George "we'll get Osama Bin Laden dead or alive" Bush, who normally followed his public bluster with a lack of actual results. The folks over at DailyKos put together an excellent compilation of these whiners:

U.S. Navy 1 : Pirates 0

Well, today certainly ended as a good day for America and for the U.S. Navy, as Captain Phillips was rescued and the whole crew of the Maersk Alabama can now return home safely. It was a brazen act for pirates to attack a U.S. flagged vessel, and America had to send a strong message that such attacks on our merchant fleet will not be tolerated. And we sent that message today, with three of the pirates being taken out by our elite SEAL teams, and the fourth now in U.S. custody. It would have been an international embarrassment if 4 teenage pirates from Somalia could have seized a U.S. vessel, or received a ransom for having captured America sailors.

For the most part, piracy on the high seas is seen as a law enforcement issue, like somebody robbing a store (one that just happens to be floating on the ocean). And unless the lives of our sailors are in danger, the rules of engagement generally prohibit trying to kill the pirates. I think this is an approach we may need to reconsider. Carl von Clausewitz, the famous military theorist, wrote of the rational calculus of war - the idea that countries weighed their war aims against the costs, and when the cost of continuing a war became greater than the gains to be achieved by winning it, they would terminate the conflict. On a smaller scale, we need to make the cost of piracy so high its no longer worth the risk. In an impoverished country such as Somalia, the money to be made from a single successful capture can be many lifetimes worth. But if a pirate knew that if he tried to seize a U.S. vessel he would be killed, no questions asked, its hard to imagine the risk still being worth it.

It's a difficult job for the U.S. Navy. There is a limited number of ships trying to cover an area of ocean over one million square miles. They can't protect every ship or every major route. But so long as they are in the area, able to get quickly to the scene of pirate attacks, they will continue to serve as a major deterrent in the region.

From a political standpoint, this is certainly a win for the Obama administration. It's interesting, though not really surprising, to note that he authorized the use of deadly force here. For days I had been hearing from my conservative friends about how Obama was too concerned with world opinion and making friends, and thus wouldn't allow the military to take necessary action here. One sent me a mocking e-mail about how Obama was willing to negotiate with "moderate pirates". But at the end of the day, he let the Navy do what they needed to do. And instead of negotiating with these thugs, we killed the pirates and freed our citizen.

Coincidentally, the destroyer that first arrived on the scene - the USS Bainbridge - was named for Commodore William Bainbridge, who fought Algerian pirates in the Barbary Wars of early 19th Century. I'm sure he would be very proud of the ship that bears his name, and the men who serve on it today.

ASU not going to give Obama an honorary degree?

ASU was really not going to give Obama an honorary diploma when he speaks there because he didn't have an appropriate "body of work" yet?!

Setting aside for a second the irony of Arizona State (ranked #121 by U.S. News and World Report) telling a former Harvard Law Review President that he doesn't meet their high standards, just what exactly are the requirements for an honorary degree? Did Obama not take enough honorary units? Fail to declare an honorary major by the deadline? I thought the whole point of an honorary degree was that you didn't actually have to do anything. I just hope this doesn't impact his chances of getting into a good honorary graduate school someday.

The good news is apparently ASU has taken so much flak for this, they are reconsidering their position and now seem likely to grant the honorary degree after all. But this, combined with the recent controversy over Obama giving the commencement speech at Notre Dame, makes me wonder just when honorary degrees became such a political hot button?

Ted Stevens files for 2014

Ted Stevens filed this week for the 2014 Senate election, although his campaign people say its not necessarily a sign he is running, but instead so he can accept contributions. Sure, now he cares about making sure all his contributions are legal.

I will say if the Alaska electorate is still hungry for change in 2014, nothing says shaking up Washington like a then 91 year old former Senator, with a history of ethics violations, who has over four decades of experience serving as a D.C. insider.

Taking a step away from politics...

I still remember where I was when I heard the news that Len Bias had died. I had gone to a Terps game the year before and saw him throw down a tomahawk dunk that I thought was the coolest thing ever. When Larry Bird said "This is the cruelest thing ever", I totally agreed. It was hard to feel the same sympathy when it came out that Lenny OD'd on cocaine, but I was still struck by the tragedy of it.

I had the same haunting feeling when I learned that Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart had been killed in a car crash just a few hours after pitching 6 shutout innings against the A's. Two of his friends were also killed and another one was seriously injured. It sounds like some moron with a suspended license got himself liquored up, ran a red light and snuffed out 3 promising lives.

Here was a young man who was just starting to achieve one his ultimate dreams- establishing himself as a major league pitcher. He'd had a couple of appearances with the Angels last year, but due to his hard work and injuries to his teammates he was the #3 pitcher for one of the best teams in baseball.

His dad had flown out from Maryland to watch his son pitch. This is a parent's ultimate nightmare- I can't even imagine what he must be feeling. Maybe there is a small comfort in the fact that he got to see his son live out his dream, but in many ways that just makes it even more painful.

It is just one more reminder that there will never be a better time than right now to give an extra hug to the people you love.

"Captain fails in attempt to flee from pirates"

That's just not a headline I expect to see in 2009. Seems more like one from 1809.