Endangered species

Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana is destined for defeat tomorrow in the Republican primary. His Tea Party opponent, Richard Mourdock, is going to win in part because people are just tired of Lugar and believe he is out of touch. It is symbolized by the fact that Lugar no longer owns a home in Indiana and his primary residence is near DC. 


Lugar is getting increasingly desperate and it momentum is going against him.  Winning candidates don't say things like: "Every person in Indiana who wants me to continue, every person, wherever they might be at this point, I encourage them to come out," he said, according to the Indianapolis Star. "Come out immediately, as fast as you can."


My prediction- Lugar loses the primary by 10 points.

Closer to home (for me), loooooonnnngggg time incumbent Congressman Pete Stark  is in major trouble in his primary race with Dublin City Councilman Eric Swalwell. Stark has been in office since 1972 and is not used to have a competitive race. His electioneering skills appear rather rusty. He has accused Swalwell of taking bribes and then was forced to apologize when he had no proof of his allegations. In a debate with Swalwell, Stark called him a "pipsqueak" and appeared angry that someone had the temerity to challenge him. 

In a recent editorial interview with the SF Chronicle, Stark talked about how he wanted an electric car from Solyndra (the now bankrupt solar manufacturer). "I wish I had enough expense allowance to get one of those new S's that Solyndra's going to make down there - the electric car," Stark said, after being asked about the company. "They run $60,000 to $90,000." I'm going to venture that the Solyndra embrace won't help Stark eliminate the notion that he is no longer the sharpest tool in the shed. 

With California's new primary law, the top two candidates will advance to the November election, regardless of party affiliation. In this case, it is likely that Democrats Swalwell and Stark will have a rematch in November. If Swalwell keeps Stark under 60% in the primary, I think he'll pull off the November upset.