Specter's not helping his cause....

With answers like this:

NYT Q: With your departure from the Republican Party, there are no more Jewish Republicans in the Senate. Do you care about that?

Arelen Spector: I sure do. There’s still time for the Minnesota courts to do justice and declare Norm Coleman the winner.

Read Jon's post below about why Specter hasn't yet been embraced by all members of the Democratic Party.

And Arlen can't be real happy about the fact that Senate Dems just stripped him of his seniority on Senate Committees.

And he's now backing away from his support for Norm Coleman (I'm getting dizzy here). In Congressional Quarterly today:

But questioned outside the Senate chamber Tuesday, Specter said the comment was a mistake.

“In the swirl of moving from one caucus to another, I have to get used to my new teammates,” he said. “I’m ordinarily pretty correct in what I say. I’ve made a career of being precise. I conclusively misspoke.”

Asked who he’s backing now in elections, Specter said, “I’m looking for more Democratic members. Nothing personal.”

Pennsylvania 2010 Senate craziness?

When Arlen Specter announced he was switching parties and becoming a Democrat, it seemed as if what could have been an interesting 2010 Senate race would be over. Had he run as a Republican, Specter was going to lose to Toomey in the primary, and then a moderate Democrat would likely win the seat. But once he switched, it looked as if he would be an overwhelming favorite to retain his seat in a general election. Particularly after Obama pledged his support.

But first came rumblings that new Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak may challenge Specter in the primary. Then Specter alienated labor, a major Democratic constituency, voted against the President's budget, and followed it by denying having ever said he would be a "loyal Democrat". As excited as Democrats are to have him switch, if he bucks the party on too many core issues, he invites a strong primary challenge from the left. Ironic for a man who left the Republican party because he was facing too strong a primary challenge from the right.

And for a while the Republican side seemed like a clear field for Pat Toomey, a right wing former Congressman who would be a relatively easy candidate for Democrats to run against in a general election. Pennsylvania has been moving to the center-left politically, and Toomey is way out on the right. But now there is talk popular former Governor Tom Ridge may run. Ridge would be a strong candidate for the GOP. He is well liked, fairly moderate (his pro-choice views kept McCain from being allowed to pick him for VP in 2008), and he has won statewide there before. His successful stint as Secretary of the Homeland Security Department won't hurt either. Indeed, early polls show Specter beating Toomey pretty badly in a general election, but a Ridge-Specter race being a virtual toss-up. It would certainly be one of the key races in 2010 if it happened.

Rep. Sestak is an interesting guy and somebody to watch, even if he doesn't throw his name in the hat this time. He retired from the Navy as a 3-star Admiral, then knocked out 20 year GOP Congressman Curt Weldon in the 2006 elections. He has made a strong early impression in the Congress, and has been a solid fundraiser as well. If he was to make it to the U.S. Senate, from a key battleground state like Pennsylvania, its easy to see him as an attractive national candidate some day. The one negative could be his reputation as a tough person to work for. But he is a definitely a politician to keep an eye on.

Depending on what Specter does as a Democrat, and who jumps in as a candidate, this could be among the most watched and interesting races of 2010.

Will the last moderate Republican to leave please turn off the lights?

Today's big news is that moderate Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter has switched parties, and will now caucus with the Democrats. Now some of this is pure political self-interest. He barely survived a primary challenge by conservative Pat Toomey in 2004, eking out a 51%-49% victory. Toomey looks set to challenge Specter from the right again in 2010, and a recent poll showed Toomey routing Specter 51% - 30%. Specter knows he would lose a Republican primary, particularly with many moderate Republicans having become Democrats in this swing state in past few years (Thanks, Bush/Cheney). His only chance was to run as a Democrat.

But this is about more than Specter's own political ambition. The Republican party has a huge problem right now. Their tilt to the right in the past decade - socially, religiously, and economically - have marginalized them and made them a regional party, based in the deep south. In recent elections, they have seen the Democratic party take every New England Congressional seat, expand into the growing southwest, take the industrial midwest, consolidate the coasts, turn Virginia into a blue state, and even capture states like Indiana and North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential race. As Specter himself noted "As the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy and more in line with the philosophy of the Democratic Party."

Specter was one of only three real "moderate" Republican Senators, and even that was somewhat debatable. And you have to assume that Maine won't be electing many Republicans to the U.S. Senate once Collins and Snowe eventually leave the institution. Basically, the Republicans have lost the middle. Voters in swing districts saw the GOP's move to the far right and elected Democrats to replace them in 2006 and 2008, leaving generally only those Republicans in safe seats in very conservative districts. Their national face is now people like Dick Cheney, Rush Limbaugh, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Newt Gingrich and Michael Steele. That's not a way to appeal to moderates or expand the party's ever shrinking base. Nor is picking off your few remaining moderates, like Specter, with primary challenges from the right.

Arlen as a Dem?

Kos makes the case.

Specter won reelection by the skin of his teeth in 2004 and the conditions are much worse for him this time around. He's become even more of an outcast within the GOP in recent years.

It is starting to remind me of the late 80s and early 90s when Southern Democrats started switching over to the GOP.

The American Spectator had a piece in 2004 on the party switchers:
Another factor is Democrats' ability to convince a Republican to join their ranks; historically, they've had a harder time getting lawmakers to cross over to their side of the aisle. In the last 50 years, 16 Democratic members of Congress have become Republicans; only five have done the reverse. Democrats-turned-Republicans in the Senate include Phil Gramm of Texas, Strom Thurmond of South Carolina and Lott (although the retiring Gramm and Thurmond will be gone next year). After the GOP won control of both houses of Congress in 1994, Sens. Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado and Richard Shelby of Alabama became Republicans, as did five House members. The only recent Republican-turned-Democrat is Rep. Michael Forbes (R-N.Y.), who lost his seat one year after his 1999 defection.

As for Richard Shelby becoming a Republican....good riddance!