Campbell opts for the Senate

Tom Campbell, former Congressman and Dean of the Haas School of Business (Go Bears!), has apparently switched out of the gubernatorial race and instead will attempt to be the GOP nominee against Barbara Boxer.  Campbell's a smart guy and figured out the math of running against former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner was daunting. Poizner is worth hundreds of millions and Meg is a billionaire. Campbell was by far the most experienced and intelligent of the GOP gubernatorial contenders, but he had no chance of getting his message out.

He'll be squaring off against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck Devore in the Senate primary. Devore is the teabag candidate in the race and Fiorina is allegedly able to appeal to women and fiscal conservatives.

Carly was pretty much a disaster as the head of HP and McCain sidelined her from his campaign after she noted that neither McCain or Palin had the qualifications to run a large corporation. Fiorina walked away with a $21.4 million severance package when HP fired her and she has loaned her campaign $2.5 million, but she certainly does not have the ability to self-fund at the levels of Poizner or Whitman.

I was looking forward to debates between Jerry Brown and Campbell- they are the only two candidates capable of having an in-depth conversation about the massive problems facing our state. Campbell has a better shot at winning the Senate nomination and it might be easier for him to beat Boxer than Brown.

One of the smartest people I've ever met....

I've always had a soft spot for former Republican Congressman Tom Campbell. He just recently stepped down as the Dean at the Haas Business School in order to run for the GOP nomination for Governor. It will be an uphill battle for him because his moderate views often put him at odds with the right-wing. Oh, he's also running against at least two people who can put tens of millions of their own money into the race.

I still think that he would have beaten Barbara Boxer for the Senate (I'm full of revisionist history tonight) if he had been the Republican nominee in 1992. He narrowly lost the nomination to Bruce Herschenson- a hard right candidate who only lost to Boxer by a couple of percentage points.

The LA Times has a profile of Campbell that's worth checking out. I wonder if he will actually run if he determines he has no chance against Whitman and Poizner.

Barbara Boxer looking good for 2010

The latest polling shows Boxer with commanding leads against all her potential 2010 opponents in the Senate race:

Boxer: 54 percent
Schwarzenegger: 30 percent

Boxer: 55 percent
Carly Fiorina: 25 percent

GOP primary:

Schwarzenegger: 31 percent
Fiorina: 24 percent
Assemblyman Chuck Devore: 9 percent
Undecided: 36 percent


With previous races against Bruce Herschensohn, Matt Fong and Bill Jones, Boxer never seemed to draw the GOP's best. Or, come to think of it, maybe she did given the state of the modern day GOP in California. Arnold looked to be her most serious challenger, but she is up 24% over the decreasingly popular Governator. And I've never been one to think Arnold was really going to run for Senate. He likes to be in charge, to be the hero of his own movie. Governor is an executive position that appeals to those instincts. Being 1 of 100 Senators, debating arcane provisions of Senate procedure, is just not something I see him being interested in.

Arnold's popularity going.....

Down. He's managed to successfully alienate independents, Republicans and Democrats. I'm guessing that Barbara Boxer isn't having many sleepless nights thinking about Arnold running against her for Senate.