New York, New York

I think the political landscape in NY is pretty fascinating. Two years ago it seemed inevitable that NY would produce a President in the very near future- Clinton and Giuliani were the front-runners for 2008 and Eliot Spitzer seemed to be on a collision with the White House. Now HRC is the Secretary of State, Rudy ran one of the worst Presidential campaigns in history (the "I'll sit out the first 18 states and then make my move" thing didn't work out so well) and Spitzer beat out David Vitter to become the most notorious call-girl client around.

The next wave of politicians is pretty fascinating. The two politicians who replaced Clinton and Spitzer, Senator Kirstin Gilibrand and Governor David Paterson, are both facing primary elections in 2010. As you can see here, they both have some work to do. Paterson is getting absolutely swamped by Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. It was just a few years ago that Cuomo's elective career was in serious jeopardy after his bumbling primary campaign for Governor. Now, in a manner very similar to Eliot Spitzer, his popularity has sky-rocketed as he targets the perpetrators of financial shenanigans.

If Cuomo becomes Governor of New York, he'd instantly be considered as a future Presidential candidate. I've always thought one of the most interesting what-ifs of recent political history is: "What if Mario Cuomo had run for President in 1992? Would he have beaten Clinton for the nomination? And would he have beaten Bush in the general election?"

NY 2010 : Senate and Governor

Interesting polling out today on the potential NY races:







Governor

David Paterson gets crushed in a primary by Andrew Cuomo (67% to 17%)

David Paterson would also get crushed in the general election by Rudy Giuliani (33% - 56%). But at least we would all get to hear the phrase "9/11" a whole lot more.

Cuomo vs. Giuliani in the general is a lot closer, with Cuomo up 51%-41%

Senate

Gillibrand beats Rep. Peter King 47%-23%.

Gillibrand is tied (41% - 41% percent) against former Governor Pataki.

NY is a heavily Democratic state, but it has shown in the past that it will elect Republicans statewide (like Pataki). And if the economy isn't showing signs of progress by 2010, all Democrats could be in some trouble if the electorate blames them. Still, I like the chances of the Democratic party holding both the Senate seat and the Governorship - particularly if Cuomo gets in the race.