Election Watch

Update 2: Nate Silver on the things to watch. 

Update: According to Chuck Todd, 25% of the votes should be counted in the first hour. 

The polls in Massachusetts a little more than an hour. Lots of speculation and reading of the tea leaves, but don't think there have been any comprehensive exit polls (probably a good thing since President Kerry can attest that they are worthless). It does sound as though there will be heavy turnout for a special election, but that can cut both ways- Coakley is helped by lots of voters in a traditionally liberal state, Brown definitely has the enthusiasm factor.

My prediction right now is a 8 point win for Brown.

All I see on the Dem side today is lots of finger pointing- never a good sign when that happens before the damn election is over. And this sure didn't help my confidence any.

Seems like the White House isn't very confident of victory.

Not looking good

During the 2008 primary season, the two people who were able to interpert the numbers and lay out the most logical scenarios were Chuck Todd of MSNBC and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. By the end of the primaries, if one of those guys said that it would snow in June in San Diego, I would have bought a parka.  Nate has Martha Coakley as a 3 to 1 underdog in tomorrow's Massachusetts special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy. Great article on how Nate Silver works his magic here. 

Democrats have a huge registration advantage over Republicans in Massachusetts but independents make up more than half of the voters. Republican Scott Brown is apparently trouncing Coakley with the independents.

President Obama made a last ditch visit to try and rally the troops, but it likely was too little, too late. By most accounts, Coakley thought she had the race wrapped up after winning the Democratic nomination. Perhaps hiring Walter Mondale as her campaign manager wasn't such a great idea.

The race Dems have to win

Retaining Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts should be a slam dunk for Dems, but a couple of recent polls (including one showing GOP nominee Scott Brown in the lead) indicate that the race could be very close. Democratic nominee and state Attorney General Martha Coakley cruised to victory in the primary, but reports are that she wasn't not going all out on the campaign trail.

If Coakley can't win this race, it will be an unmitigated disaster for Dems. Aside from a stunning rebuke in a liberal state, Dems would also lose their 60th seat in the Senate. People like Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman would be even less likely to fall in line with the majority.

A GOP win in Massachusetts is the one thing that might stop passage of health care reform at this point. I expect to see Obama and Biden campaigning for Coakley and pulling out all the stops to make sure she wins.

The Boston Globe just came out with a poll this morning showing Coakley up by 15 points- that's what I'd expect her to win by and is certainly a bit of a relief.