"White House Sorry After Biden Remark"

Just saw that headline on CNN.com, in reference to Biden's comments about the swine flu. I don't think what he said was really that bad, but what is the over/under in Vegas for how many times you are going to see that headline in the next 4 years?

The best part was Press Secretary Robert Gibbs' statement: "I know what he said, and I am telling you what he meant to say". I'm sure we'll be hearing a lot of that too in the coming months and years.

Facebook lawyer wants to be CA AG

Chris Kelly, the Chief Privacy Officer at Facebook, is gearing up to run for Attorney General of California. His joining a crowded Democratic field- SF District Attorney Kamala Harris, LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo (he got beat by Jerry Brown in 2006), Assemblyman Ted Lieu and Assembly Majority Leader Alberto Torrico are among the other contenders.

Kelly already has a Facebook app (never seen a person have an app devoted to them before)and a web page up. Kind of a given that a candidate will have a web page, but I do remember that the Democratic candidate in the 15th AD (now held by Joan Buchanan) never managed to get a website, despite people offering to build it for him. If he'd gotten 4% more of the vote, he'd have been in the Assembly. Absolutely killed me...but I digress.

In a down-ballot race like AG, it is hard to get your message out in a state like California. TV advertising is pretty much limited to the last week or two of the race- only gazillionaires who self-fund can afford to have ads up prior to that. Ballot designation can have a big impact (that's why you always see things like "educator" and "rancher" instead of "career politician").

I'm sure that Kelly has some cash stashed away, but doubt he'll be able to plop down a chunk of cash like Steve Westly did. I'm sure he'll leverage Facebook, but what else will he do to breakthrough?

Who is Anthony Woods? Does he know John Galt?

I had never heard of him until about 3 weeks ago, but suddenly he's someone that all the major players (you need a heartbeat and good hygiene to be labeled as such) in Contra Costa politics are buzzing about. He's the latest candidate to jump in the race to succeed Ellen Tauscher in Congress. Side note- poor Ellen is like an elderly, sick Aunt who is surrounded by relatives waiting for her to just die already. In this case, they are waiting for her to get confirmed by the Senate and resign her seat.

So why the hype about Anthony Woods? Starts with the bio- he's a young, gay, African-American, Bronze Star winning, Harvard and West Point educated, humanitarian son of a single Mom who supported them by working long hours as a housekeeper. And that's the short version- check out his full bio here. It kind of reminds me of when Jon Stewart played tape of John Edwards talking about how he was the son of a mill worker...very impressive- until Stewart played tape of Obama talking about how his father herded goats. Goat herder trumps mill worker.

This special election is going to be a wild ride. It certainly is hard to imagine that a political unknown could knock off a State Senator, State Assemblywoman and Lieutenant Governor,,,,but dude has a hell of a resume. His website is pretty slick and he certainly seems to have a good grasp of social media. I haven't met him yet, but I'm looking forward to it.

The GOP Map

Much has been made of the shrinking GOP base, how badly they are doing with young people and minorities, and how they are losing moderate voters as they pull further to the right. It's sort of a vicious cycle, because as they lose moderates the remaining voters and elected officials in the party are the kinds of dogmatic conservatives who pull the party further to the right, thus further alienating moderates.

Anyhow, since I was curious, here is a list of the states that voted Republican in 2000, 2004 and 2008 - all 3 elections.

Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, South Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Texas, and Missouri. The list kind of speaks for itself, really.

The bad news for the GOP is they don't have much consistent appeal outside of the bible belt and deep south anymore. The good news is you can probably count on those 22 states (159 electoral votes) through just about anything. Anybody who voted for Bush twice, then McCain in 2008, probably will pretty much vote for anything with an "R" next to their name no matter what happens.

Will the last moderate Republican to leave please turn off the lights?

Today's big news is that moderate Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter has switched parties, and will now caucus with the Democrats. Now some of this is pure political self-interest. He barely survived a primary challenge by conservative Pat Toomey in 2004, eking out a 51%-49% victory. Toomey looks set to challenge Specter from the right again in 2010, and a recent poll showed Toomey routing Specter 51% - 30%. Specter knows he would lose a Republican primary, particularly with many moderate Republicans having become Democrats in this swing state in past few years (Thanks, Bush/Cheney). His only chance was to run as a Democrat.

But this is about more than Specter's own political ambition. The Republican party has a huge problem right now. Their tilt to the right in the past decade - socially, religiously, and economically - have marginalized them and made them a regional party, based in the deep south. In recent elections, they have seen the Democratic party take every New England Congressional seat, expand into the growing southwest, take the industrial midwest, consolidate the coasts, turn Virginia into a blue state, and even capture states like Indiana and North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential race. As Specter himself noted "As the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy and more in line with the philosophy of the Democratic Party."

Specter was one of only three real "moderate" Republican Senators, and even that was somewhat debatable. And you have to assume that Maine won't be electing many Republicans to the U.S. Senate once Collins and Snowe eventually leave the institution. Basically, the Republicans have lost the middle. Voters in swing districts saw the GOP's move to the far right and elected Democrats to replace them in 2006 and 2008, leaving generally only those Republicans in safe seats in very conservative districts. Their national face is now people like Dick Cheney, Rush Limbaugh, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Newt Gingrich and Michael Steele. That's not a way to appeal to moderates or expand the party's ever shrinking base. Nor is picking off your few remaining moderates, like Specter, with primary challenges from the right.

Thoughts on the CDP convention

I only made it up for part of the California Democratic convention, but there were a number of interesting things that transpired. John Burton, long-time political power broker, is the new Chair of the party. To give you an idea of how powerful he is, you can just look at where the convention was held- Sacramento. Normally, the convention alternates between Northern and Southern California. Two years ago it was in San Diego, last year San Jose- traditionally, it would have been back in SoCal this year. Burton, however, initially thought he might face a serious contender for party chair...so he had the convention held in Sacramento so that a) legislators (many of whom owe Burton for past favors) and their proxies would have no excuse for missing the convention and b) to keep the convention out of the backyard of his potential challenger.

There is only one person I know who is not impressed by John Burton's power- Reid Lawrence. Young Reid attended the Contra Costa Central Committee holiday party and John Burton was in attendance to announce his candidacy. When John Burton would finish a statement, Reid repeatedly (and loudly) responded "Oh yeah?" I escorted Reid out of the room before he made an enemy for life. Reid then proceeded to almost knock over a 30 ft. Christmas tree.

The gubernatorial contest is starting to grab people's attention. Gavin Newsom presented himself as the dynamic, innovative mayor who knows how to get things done (he may also know how to get things down, but I'll leave that alone). Jerry Brown claims the mantle of experienced operator with the backbone to battle the Republicans. Newsom certainly seemed to win the support of a lot of Young Dems, but most people I talked to rate Brown as the early favorite right now. LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was conspicuously absent from the Convention. Rumor had it that he didn't want to appear to be running for Governor until after he has started his second term as Mayor of LA. The most popular event of the Convention was a Young Dems block party on Saturday night that had two main attractions- Newsom and Wyclef Jean.

One of the cooler things of the weekend was that Hillary Crosby knocked off the incumbent Eric Bradely to become the new Controller of the state party. Hillary ran an amazing campaign for an office that many people had never heard of. Her campaign team personally lobbied every delegate and identified her supporters. It was a real tribute to the power of the grassroots to see her pull of the victory.

If you were at the convention, please share your thoughts and let me know what I missed.

Texas leaving the country?

Last week, Governor Perry hinted that Texas just may succeed from the United States if Obama continues to pass policies that the conservative state doesn't agree with. The consensus is that Perry doesn't really want to leave the Union, so much as he is posturing politically, trying to shore up his support with the right wing for a likely primary battle with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson. But this begs the question - why is the right wing so excited by talk of succession? I thought these were the guys who love America? The guys who never miss a chance to wave the flag and talk about what patriots they are? But now, just three months after having lost one election, suddenly they can't leave America soon enough? As First Read put it, "Imagine the outcries of patriotism (or lack thereof) if Massachusetts or New York hinted at secession during the Bush years."

Indeed, Texas Republicans are pretty split on the issue, with 48% thinking it would be better to stick with America, and 48% thinking the state would be better off if it were independent. And this isn't a state that has been somehow frozen out of political power, they just had the U.S. President for 8 years! As Kos asks, "Since you've spent the last eight years saying "America, love it or leave it", is that an admission that you don't love America? Because we liberals - We loved it and stayed, even when your idiot of a president was trashing the place."

Fivethirtyeight.com takes an interesting look at the political ramifications of Texas leaving. Basically, the Republicans would lose 2 Senators, a bunch of House seats, and George Bush wouldn't have become President in 2000 (or it would have taken some real magic by the Supreme Court). To highlight what a bad candidate John Kerry was, Kerry would have still lost in 2004 even if Texas's electoral votes are removed. I'm pretty sure Kerry would have found a way to lose even if the whole election was just California, Vermont and D.C.

But all this talk about Presidents and succession misses the truly important point. With Texas out of the Union, there is no way Mack Brown's public whining in 2004 would have jumped the University of Texas mysteriously ahead of Cal in the final BCS poll, and Cal would have finally made a Rose Bowl. Not that I'm still bitter or anything.

"A mixed bag of badassery"

We have talked a bit about the Navy SEALs and the stunning rescue that took place, but I just came across this great quote today from the Navy Times from one of the sailors on the USS Bainbridge when asked about the Navy SEALs who had been on board...

“If I had to describe them in one way, it would be ‘badass,’ ” said a Bainbridge crew member about the embarked special warfare operators. He asked that his name not be used so he could speak candidly. “All kinds of uniforms and weapons. It was a mixed bag of badassery.”

If the SEALs ever wanted a new motto for the group, that would be one of my top picks.

Did Steele blow off the Jews for Tyson?

RNC Chair Michael Steele, who is the brother of Mike Tyson's second wife, attended the premiere of the new documentary "Tyson" but then skipped out the next morning on a scheduled speech to a group of reform Jewish leaders. I'm not sure that Steele will make it to 2010 in his current job. But I will continue to uphold my promise that I will look for every opportunity to mention that the RNC Chairman is the former brother-in-law of my buddy Mike Tyson.

First Lady sneaks out for burgers!

As though Jon and I needed another reason to like her (from MSNBC):

"I went to Five Guys and nobody knew it," she said, naming a popular chain of hamburger restaurants. "It was good."