Pennsylvania 2010 Senate craziness?

When Arlen Specter announced he was switching parties and becoming a Democrat, it seemed as if what could have been an interesting 2010 Senate race would be over. Had he run as a Republican, Specter was going to lose to Toomey in the primary, and then a moderate Democrat would likely win the seat. But once he switched, it looked as if he would be an overwhelming favorite to retain his seat in a general election. Particularly after Obama pledged his support.

But first came rumblings that new Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak may challenge Specter in the primary. Then Specter alienated labor, a major Democratic constituency, voted against the President's budget, and followed it by denying having ever said he would be a "loyal Democrat". As excited as Democrats are to have him switch, if he bucks the party on too many core issues, he invites a strong primary challenge from the left. Ironic for a man who left the Republican party because he was facing too strong a primary challenge from the right.

And for a while the Republican side seemed like a clear field for Pat Toomey, a right wing former Congressman who would be a relatively easy candidate for Democrats to run against in a general election. Pennsylvania has been moving to the center-left politically, and Toomey is way out on the right. But now there is talk popular former Governor Tom Ridge may run. Ridge would be a strong candidate for the GOP. He is well liked, fairly moderate (his pro-choice views kept McCain from being allowed to pick him for VP in 2008), and he has won statewide there before. His successful stint as Secretary of the Homeland Security Department won't hurt either. Indeed, early polls show Specter beating Toomey pretty badly in a general election, but a Ridge-Specter race being a virtual toss-up. It would certainly be one of the key races in 2010 if it happened.

Rep. Sestak is an interesting guy and somebody to watch, even if he doesn't throw his name in the hat this time. He retired from the Navy as a 3-star Admiral, then knocked out 20 year GOP Congressman Curt Weldon in the 2006 elections. He has made a strong early impression in the Congress, and has been a solid fundraiser as well. If he was to make it to the U.S. Senate, from a key battleground state like Pennsylvania, its easy to see him as an attractive national candidate some day. The one negative could be his reputation as a tough person to work for. But he is a definitely a politician to keep an eye on.

Depending on what Specter does as a Democrat, and who jumps in as a candidate, this could be among the most watched and interesting races of 2010.