The race for the Democratic Gubernatorial nomination in Virginia looks like it will be going down to the wire. A couple of weeks ago, it looked as though uber-Clintonite Terry McAuliffe was starting to pull away. He cracked 40% in the polls and he has raised a ton of money. But instead of the Macker cruising to victory, the race suddenly got much tighter. Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran both started moving up in the polls while McAuliffe moved backwards. As Nate at 538 noted, the polls look like the Iowa caucus in 2004 (Dean crashing, Kerry and Edwards rising rapidly).
It also reminds me of the 2006 CA Dem race for governor. Steve Westly had moved in to a lead against Phil Angelides and had a ton of money to spend on the race. Once Westly was up by 7 or 8 points, I thought his financial advantage ensured he'd win. Instead, Angelides won the endorsement of the CA Dem party at the state convention and came back to win. Angelides also had the good sense to put his attractive daughters and wife front and center in his commercials (no one mistook Phil for Brad Pitt).
My guess is that McAuliffe will win by a tiny margin, but we might not know who the winner is on Election Night.
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