GOP 2012 Contenders?

A poll today shows Huckabee (22%), Palin (21%) and Romney (21%) in a virtual three way tie when it comes to the Republican preferences right now for their 2012 candidate. Of course its ridiculously early, and the poll is mainly just a reflection of candidates who just ran for national office in 2008 and are still on people's minds. As brilliant as his 2004 Democratic convention speech was, few thought Obama would be ready to run in 2008 with just 4 years in the Senate under his belt. And in 1988 the Democratic talk for 1992 centered around well known heavyweights like Mario Cuomo - and not some obscure Southern Governor named Bill Clinton. It's difficult to know who will emerge this far out.

From a Democratic perspective, Romney is really the only guy on that list who should be of any concern. Huckabee is a surprisingly charismatic speaker and a very likeable guy - but his politics are too far to the right to make him much of a threat in a general election. And its just hard to imagine future children reading about a "President Huckabee". Palin is a national joke. Sure, there is a core of 20-25% of the GOP that will always love her, but it won't be enough to get through a primary, let alone a national election. There was probably nobody McCain could have selected as VP that would have won him the 2008 election, but Palin ended whatever chance he did have by pushing moderates, independents, and voters who like their candidates to be able to answer basic questions (like "what do you read?") into the Obama camp for good. Romney, on the other hand, looks and sounds like a President, has a certain gravitas to him, can raise money, and has proven he can win in blue states - serving as Governor of Massachusetts. And if the economy is still sluggish in 2012 - likely the only way the GOP are going to beat Obama anyhow - his credentials in that field can serve him well with the electorate.

The GOP actually have a candidate who on paper looks perfect for 2012. A popular former Governor of Florida, a critical swing state the party lost in 2008. A man who is liked by both economic and social conservatives, yet while not polarizing the electorate and pushing away moderates. His wife was born in Mexico, and he is popular with a Latino community that the Republican party has struggled to capture politically. Yet Jeb's last name happens to be "Bush", and after 12 years of mediocre to horrible Bush Presidencies (although Bush 41 is looking better and better all the time in comparison), its questionable if America has any interest in seeing yet another Bush in the White House. If, after 4 years of Obama, people are looking back fondly on the Bush era - this country will be in more trouble than anyone can imagine.