Retaining Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts should be a slam dunk for Dems, but a couple of recent polls (including one showing GOP nominee Scott Brown in the lead) indicate that the race could be very close. Democratic nominee and state Attorney General Martha Coakley cruised to victory in the primary, but reports are that she wasn't not going all out on the campaign trail.
If Coakley can't win this race, it will be an unmitigated disaster for Dems. Aside from a stunning rebuke in a liberal state, Dems would also lose their 60th seat in the Senate. People like Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman would be even less likely to fall in line with the majority.
A GOP win in Massachusetts is the one thing that might stop passage of health care reform at this point. I expect to see Obama and Biden campaigning for Coakley and pulling out all the stops to make sure she wins.
The Boston Globe just came out with a poll this morning showing Coakley up by 15 points- that's what I'd expect her to win by and is certainly a bit of a relief.
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