GOP 2012 Contenders?

A poll today shows Huckabee (22%), Palin (21%) and Romney (21%) in a virtual three way tie when it comes to the Republican preferences right now for their 2012 candidate. Of course its ridiculously early, and the poll is mainly just a reflection of candidates who just ran for national office in 2008 and are still on people's minds. As brilliant as his 2004 Democratic convention speech was, few thought Obama would be ready to run in 2008 with just 4 years in the Senate under his belt. And in 1988 the Democratic talk for 1992 centered around well known heavyweights like Mario Cuomo - and not some obscure Southern Governor named Bill Clinton. It's difficult to know who will emerge this far out.

From a Democratic perspective, Romney is really the only guy on that list who should be of any concern. Huckabee is a surprisingly charismatic speaker and a very likeable guy - but his politics are too far to the right to make him much of a threat in a general election. And its just hard to imagine future children reading about a "President Huckabee". Palin is a national joke. Sure, there is a core of 20-25% of the GOP that will always love her, but it won't be enough to get through a primary, let alone a national election. There was probably nobody McCain could have selected as VP that would have won him the 2008 election, but Palin ended whatever chance he did have by pushing moderates, independents, and voters who like their candidates to be able to answer basic questions (like "what do you read?") into the Obama camp for good. Romney, on the other hand, looks and sounds like a President, has a certain gravitas to him, can raise money, and has proven he can win in blue states - serving as Governor of Massachusetts. And if the economy is still sluggish in 2012 - likely the only way the GOP are going to beat Obama anyhow - his credentials in that field can serve him well with the electorate.

The GOP actually have a candidate who on paper looks perfect for 2012. A popular former Governor of Florida, a critical swing state the party lost in 2008. A man who is liked by both economic and social conservatives, yet while not polarizing the electorate and pushing away moderates. His wife was born in Mexico, and he is popular with a Latino community that the Republican party has struggled to capture politically. Yet Jeb's last name happens to be "Bush", and after 12 years of mediocre to horrible Bush Presidencies (although Bush 41 is looking better and better all the time in comparison), its questionable if America has any interest in seeing yet another Bush in the White House. If, after 4 years of Obama, people are looking back fondly on the Bush era - this country will be in more trouble than anyone can imagine.

The Obama reelection guarantee

OK, maybe it is a tiny bit early, but I'm going to go ahead and guarantee that Obama will be reelected in 2012. Since his reelection is a foregone conclusion, it makes it all the more enjoyable to watch the positioning for the GOP nomination. That nomination will be about as appealing as a tuna sandwich that's been left out in the sun for 8 hours.

So why am I so confident of the inevitability of Obama? The single biggest factor in a President's reelection is how the economy is performing. Let's take a quick look at the recent history:

1972- Nixon imposes wage and price controls that create an artificial, temporary prosperity. McGovern gets trounced.

1980- Jimmy Carter faces an economy so bad that they create a new term "stagflation". Hello, Ronnie.

1984- After coming out of the 1982 recession, Reagan's combination of tax cuts and increased spending creates a booming economy...and massive deficits. Mondale's famous, ill-advised pledge to "tax you bastards back to the Stone Age" is a huge hit in Minnesota, D.C. and...nowhere else.

1992- George H.W. Bush manages to take his 90% approval ratings in 1991 and still lose to Bill Clinton because of the recession.

1996- Clinton rebounds from the GOP landslide in 1994 and remain in the White House because the economy was just starting to boom.

2004- George W. Bush gets his first win in a Presidential election (still not letting Florida go) in 2004 because a) John Kerry was a complete tool and b) people generally felt OK about the economy.

Based on economic cycles, I think we'll be on the upswing in 2012. If we don't see the economy get better in the next four years, then I don't care if my Internet prediction looks foolish- no one will be able to afford a computer or electricity so it won't matter.

Furthermore, Gingrich, Romney, Palin, Jindal- not really seeing a big winner out there on the horizon.

Only ways I can imagine Obama losing:

Leaves Michelle for Lindsay Lohan
Hires Michael Vick as a dog trainer for Bo
Doesn't listen to Jack Bauer's advice

Too early to talk about 2012?

Absolutely not! BoGlo looks at the return of Mitt. In a party of pygmies, Mitt doth stride the world like a Goliath. Plus, it is one more chance for me to again link to my all-time favorite YouTube video:

Rush is the star of CPAC

Mitt Romney may have won the straw poll, but there is little doubt that Rush Limbaugh was the star of the conference. One of the reasons that Rush is popular with the right wing is that he clearly states what he believes. He doesn't water-down his dislike for President Obama- Rush admits he is rooting for Obama to fail. Compared to the gobbly-gook that Bobby Jindal was spouting, I'm sure that is welcome to GOP listeners.

Salon has a good take on his appearance at CPAC and his standing in the party.

" Limbaugh exhorted conservatives to stay upbeat, blasted the alleged socialist agenda of the "Democrat Party," and called out the new president, the one he hopes will fail. "President Obama: Your agenda is not new, it's not change, and it's not hope," Limbaugh thundered, to wild applause in the Omni Shoreham's packed Regency Ballroom, as overflow crowds in three of the hotel's other convention rooms watched by live feed."

Even though I can't stand Rush, he is more authentic than this guy:

Romney wins CPAC poll

Romney 20%, Jindal 14%, Palin 13%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 10%, Huckabee 7%.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003063709

I'm sure Joe the Plumber would have been in double digits had he thrown his name in the ring. Of good news for the GOP, Romney is the only person on that list that I can see with a realistic chance of winning a general election someday. If his being a Mormon and a formerly centrist (even sometimes liberal) Governor of Massachusetts doesn't offend this far right wing crowd, then he has a decent chance of getting through a GOP primary. And he just sold off two of his four mansions, showing he is just a regular guy going through tough economic times like everyone else. I'll bet even John McCain can name the number of houses Romney now owns.

Romney or Palin in 2012?

Oh, please, please let one of them be the GOP nominee in 2012. And the idea of them on same ticket leaves me downright giddy. The Mittster is throwing some coin out to GOP congressman who are Dem targets in 2010.

LA TImes states: But anytime you see these guys like Romney, and more recently Gov. Sarah Palin, create their own PACs to support like-minded politicians (and their own political forays), they're also creating a financial means to accumulate owsies from those fellow party members they help for use down the road.

And in a sign of just how horrific the economy has gotten, Mitt is selling off two of his mansions. Nice pic.

Ambinder puts on his Bad Ideas Jeans

Mitt in the Cabinet?????

Not going to happen. First off, if there was a perception problem with Daschle, is the solution to appoint the multi-millionaire who has almost as many houses as McCain?

Let's not take this team of rivals thing too far- Lincoln didn't appoint Jefferson Davis to his cabinet.

The good news is that it gives me the chance to again share: