Friday, April 17, 2009

The Obama reelection guarantee

OK, maybe it is a tiny bit early, but I'm going to go ahead and guarantee that Obama will be reelected in 2012. Since his reelection is a foregone conclusion, it makes it all the more enjoyable to watch the positioning for the GOP nomination. That nomination will be about as appealing as a tuna sandwich that's been left out in the sun for 8 hours.

So why am I so confident of the inevitability of Obama? The single biggest factor in a President's reelection is how the economy is performing. Let's take a quick look at the recent history:

1972- Nixon imposes wage and price controls that create an artificial, temporary prosperity. McGovern gets trounced.

1980- Jimmy Carter faces an economy so bad that they create a new term "stagflation". Hello, Ronnie.

1984- After coming out of the 1982 recession, Reagan's combination of tax cuts and increased spending creates a booming economy...and massive deficits. Mondale's famous, ill-advised pledge to "tax you bastards back to the Stone Age" is a huge hit in Minnesota, D.C. and...nowhere else.

1992- George H.W. Bush manages to take his 90% approval ratings in 1991 and still lose to Bill Clinton because of the recession.

1996- Clinton rebounds from the GOP landslide in 1994 and remain in the White House because the economy was just starting to boom.

2004- George W. Bush gets his first win in a Presidential election (still not letting Florida go) in 2004 because a) John Kerry was a complete tool and b) people generally felt OK about the economy.

Based on economic cycles, I think we'll be on the upswing in 2012. If we don't see the economy get better in the next four years, then I don't care if my Internet prediction looks foolish- no one will be able to afford a computer or electricity so it won't matter.

Furthermore, Gingrich, Romney, Palin, Jindal- not really seeing a big winner out there on the horizon.

Only ways I can imagine Obama losing:

Leaves Michelle for Lindsay Lohan
Hires Michael Vick as a dog trainer for Bo
Doesn't listen to Jack Bauer's advice

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