Smile, Sarah....but no talking

Nothing sums up the current state of the GOP better than the fact that they can't even figure out who will be their keynote speaker at an event. They invite Sarah Palin to keynote, then she's not keynoting, then Newt is keynoting, Sarah's still speaking, then she's not coming, then she is coming..... and so it goes. It reminds me of the Democrats during the 1980s- and I'm so glad to be on the outside looking in.

Jon recently wrote about the GOP frontrunners for 2012. If Palin or Gingrich were the nominee, David Axelrod would be popping champagne.

GOP 2012 Contenders?

A poll today shows Huckabee (22%), Palin (21%) and Romney (21%) in a virtual three way tie when it comes to the Republican preferences right now for their 2012 candidate. Of course its ridiculously early, and the poll is mainly just a reflection of candidates who just ran for national office in 2008 and are still on people's minds. As brilliant as his 2004 Democratic convention speech was, few thought Obama would be ready to run in 2008 with just 4 years in the Senate under his belt. And in 1988 the Democratic talk for 1992 centered around well known heavyweights like Mario Cuomo - and not some obscure Southern Governor named Bill Clinton. It's difficult to know who will emerge this far out.

From a Democratic perspective, Romney is really the only guy on that list who should be of any concern. Huckabee is a surprisingly charismatic speaker and a very likeable guy - but his politics are too far to the right to make him much of a threat in a general election. And its just hard to imagine future children reading about a "President Huckabee". Palin is a national joke. Sure, there is a core of 20-25% of the GOP that will always love her, but it won't be enough to get through a primary, let alone a national election. There was probably nobody McCain could have selected as VP that would have won him the 2008 election, but Palin ended whatever chance he did have by pushing moderates, independents, and voters who like their candidates to be able to answer basic questions (like "what do you read?") into the Obama camp for good. Romney, on the other hand, looks and sounds like a President, has a certain gravitas to him, can raise money, and has proven he can win in blue states - serving as Governor of Massachusetts. And if the economy is still sluggish in 2012 - likely the only way the GOP are going to beat Obama anyhow - his credentials in that field can serve him well with the electorate.

The GOP actually have a candidate who on paper looks perfect for 2012. A popular former Governor of Florida, a critical swing state the party lost in 2008. A man who is liked by both economic and social conservatives, yet while not polarizing the electorate and pushing away moderates. His wife was born in Mexico, and he is popular with a Latino community that the Republican party has struggled to capture politically. Yet Jeb's last name happens to be "Bush", and after 12 years of mediocre to horrible Bush Presidencies (although Bush 41 is looking better and better all the time in comparison), its questionable if America has any interest in seeing yet another Bush in the White House. If, after 4 years of Obama, people are looking back fondly on the Bush era - this country will be in more trouble than anyone can imagine.

The lady doth protest too much?

Sarah Palin is coming out with a book (insert own joke here) and from her quotes she seems to be just a little sensitive about her reputation, don't you think?

"Being a voracious reader, I read a lot today and have read a lot growing up. And having that journalism degree, all of that, will be a great assistance for me in writing this book,..Palin said. "I've read a variety of books, and that helps shape my opinions and my views."

Most authors don't feel the need to prove they actually read books, but then most authors never had an interview like this:

Sarah Palin: Conservatism's most "articulate" voice?

I'm still not quite sure what to make of Rush Limbaugh's comment today that Sarah Palin has been one of conservatism's most articulate voices. Part of me thinks its just another in a long line of Rush making comments that make zero sense whatsover. But part of me thinks maybe she really was one of their more articulate voices, which explains why the Republican party and the conservative movement are at a political and intellectual nadir.

Well, you judge for yourself on Ms. Articulate ....



My favorite though was when she couldn't name one newspaper she reads. I mean the question isn't even really "name a newspaper you actually read", which should be simple enough. In basic political terms the question is really "just name a newspaper" - its not like they are going to fingerprint newspapers to make sure you really read them. Then she complained about "gotcha" journalism, when its hard to think of an easier question than what newspaper do you read.

The Obama reelection guarantee

OK, maybe it is a tiny bit early, but I'm going to go ahead and guarantee that Obama will be reelected in 2012. Since his reelection is a foregone conclusion, it makes it all the more enjoyable to watch the positioning for the GOP nomination. That nomination will be about as appealing as a tuna sandwich that's been left out in the sun for 8 hours.

So why am I so confident of the inevitability of Obama? The single biggest factor in a President's reelection is how the economy is performing. Let's take a quick look at the recent history:

1972- Nixon imposes wage and price controls that create an artificial, temporary prosperity. McGovern gets trounced.

1980- Jimmy Carter faces an economy so bad that they create a new term "stagflation". Hello, Ronnie.

1984- After coming out of the 1982 recession, Reagan's combination of tax cuts and increased spending creates a booming economy...and massive deficits. Mondale's famous, ill-advised pledge to "tax you bastards back to the Stone Age" is a huge hit in Minnesota, D.C. and...nowhere else.

1992- George H.W. Bush manages to take his 90% approval ratings in 1991 and still lose to Bill Clinton because of the recession.

1996- Clinton rebounds from the GOP landslide in 1994 and remain in the White House because the economy was just starting to boom.

2004- George W. Bush gets his first win in a Presidential election (still not letting Florida go) in 2004 because a) John Kerry was a complete tool and b) people generally felt OK about the economy.

Based on economic cycles, I think we'll be on the upswing in 2012. If we don't see the economy get better in the next four years, then I don't care if my Internet prediction looks foolish- no one will be able to afford a computer or electricity so it won't matter.

Furthermore, Gingrich, Romney, Palin, Jindal- not really seeing a big winner out there on the horizon.

Only ways I can imagine Obama losing:

Leaves Michelle for Lindsay Lohan
Hires Michael Vick as a dog trainer for Bo
Doesn't listen to Jack Bauer's advice

Joe the Plumber running for office?

Good to see Joe the Plumber (who is actually neither a licensed plumber, nor named Joe) still in the news, this time at the Conservative Political Action Committee giving quotes about the state of the Republican party and how he may run for office someday.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/02/26/1812082.aspx

Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Michael Steele, and Joe the Plumber. It's quite a crew the GOP have over there as their public face. I feel like its almost a waste to be using a political superstar like Barack Obama during this era. Kind of like trotting out Kobe Bryant for your office hoops game. Heck, even Walter Mondale is looking at these guys and thinking to himself "I'd get at least 300 electoral votes".

Romney or Palin in 2012?

Oh, please, please let one of them be the GOP nominee in 2012. And the idea of them on same ticket leaves me downright giddy. The Mittster is throwing some coin out to GOP congressman who are Dem targets in 2010.

LA TImes states: But anytime you see these guys like Romney, and more recently Gov. Sarah Palin, create their own PACs to support like-minded politicians (and their own political forays), they're also creating a financial means to accumulate owsies from those fellow party members they help for use down the road.

And in a sign of just how horrific the economy has gotten, Mitt is selling off two of his mansions. Nice pic.